Decision analysis of petrol (PMS) subsidy in Nigeria

SYSTEMS APPROACH TO THE SUBSIDY REMOVAL...
"Decision suggetions" and implication in 2016

The problem in Petrol can be modeled as-

"TRAGEDY of COMMONS" -

Agents use common limited resource to profit individually. As the use of the resource is not controlled, the agents would like to continuously raise their benefits. The resource is therefore used more and more and the revenues of the agents are decreasing. The agents are intensifying their exploitation until the resource is completely used up or seriously damaged.

#The previous government's approach to oil problems however can be modeled as-

"FIXES THAT FAIL" -

The problem approached by some fix (a specific solution- "subsidy") with immediate positive effect. Nonetheless, the “side effects” of this solution turn out in the future to corruption and depletion of reserve.

However, as Nigerians who have seen alot and are going through pains and hardships
#What WE Like can be modeled as-

"SHIFTING THE BURDEN"
The problem is handled by a simple solution with immediate effect, thereby "healing the symptoms" not the cause. The primary source of the problem is overlooked, because its remedy is demanding and has no immediate outcome. (-we don't care who is stealing money, at least let's enjoy 1 thing as citizens)

In these protests, our demand can be modeled as:

"DRIFTING GOALS"

A kind of shifting the burden but as current problems need to be handled immediately, the long-term goals continuously decline. (Mortgaging the future) . So although we want Nigerian to be great, we want a bright future the gap between our today and desired tomorrow is so wise that we want to give up and manage the "norm"

RESULTS IN 2026 (Where we would be as a result of the decisions above)

SCENARIO 1.. Petrol price = #85 (65 Naira subsidy).
Time horizon: 2016-2026 (Inflation factors excluded)

"SUCCESS TO THE SUCCESSFUL"

Decision: Two people or activities need the same limited resources. As one of them becomes more successful, more resources are assigned to him/it. The second one becomes less and less successful due to lacking resources, and “prove the right decision” to support the first one.
In short more subsidy is given so masses can buy Petrol cheap.
Therefore, in 2026, the cabals all enter into forbes billionaire list while the masses...

So we all should embrace the removal of subsidy since we know the money will not fly abroad. ..
The hardship has an expiration time..

References:

Senge, Peter M. (1990), The Fifth Discipline, Doubleday/Currency, ISBN 0-385-26094-6

Spicar, Radim . "System Dynamics Archetypes in Capacity Planning". Procedia Engineering 69 (C): 1350–1355.

Bib .
Wikepedia

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Kini ni n o fole se laye timo wa.. what would I do with money laundering? Yoruba poem from Alawiye

Image
1. Kini ni n o fole se laye timo wa   Kini ni n o fole se laye timo wa Laye ti mo wa kaka kin jale  Kaka kin jale makuku deru.  Kini ni n o fole se laye timo wa.  2. Eni ba jale adele ejo  Eni ba jale adele ejo Adajo awa fewon si lese  Fewon si lese bi olugbe  Eni to jale Adele ejo  3. Aye ema fole s'omo ti mo bi  Aye ema fole s'omo ti mo bi  Omo ti mo bi ewon ko sun won  Ewon ko sun won f'omoluwabi  Aye ema fole s'omo ti mobi.  4. Oluwa ma fole segbe ti mo ni   Oluwa ma fole segbe ti mo ni Egbe ti mo ni kaka kin jale  Kaka kojale bo ba ku o to  Aye ema fole s’gbe ti mo ni.  5. Beni to jale ba Lola laye  Beni to jale ba Lola laye Bo lola laye kole rorun wo  Kole rorun wo bolojo bade  Beni to jale Balola laye. 
Read more

Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA) GATE. A dream come true. .. WINNING 11.. FUTA CLASS OF 2011 - Toyosi Craig

Image
Old FUTA gate Earlier in February, 2004. I attended an AONIAN games (high school olympics) in Owo. my school principal, Mr. F.O. Ogun had to drive us (Ebunoluwa Oluwaferanmi Lanre Shonoiki Bakenne Sulaiman Abiodun and Omotoyosi Craig II) down to meet other students who left earlier, we were going to represent our city (Abeokuta) in the academic part of the games. When we got to Akure, my principal showed us FUTA, and asked who would like to attend the university, (we were about writing Matric. then)..none of us said Yes.. and to break the silence, I said, who would attend a school that the gate looked worse than that of our high school..?   However, a year and a half later I was a student of that school, FUTA.. .. I was laughing at myself and said only one thing on entering the gate of the school.. "I WILL NOT LEAVE THIS GATE LIKE THIS ON GRADUATION".. 5 years passed and I was a member of our graduating set executives chaired by Toluwanimi Kolawole, I was to le
Read more

Philip Hayab– The Pride of Ham, the Pride of Nigeria

Image
Philip Hayab Philip Hayab is a purposeful, creative Nigerian, who welcomes innovative ideas especially when they presented constructively. He wrote the book: Realism in African Literature: African Arts and Depiction of Reality, which is available on amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Realism-African-Literature-Depiction-Reality/dp/3846502669 Phillip recently completed his doctoral degree in African languages at Stellenbosch University with a thesis titled:  Narratives of Identity and Sociocultural Worldview in Song Texts of the Ham of Nigeria: A Discourse Analysis Investigation. The thesis is available online via:  http://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/100914. Other works of Philip can be found on his blog:  https://philiphayab.blogspot.co.za/ On interview with Anti-Gbege Philip said: “ My research focuses on rediscovering, through a multidisciplinary approach, the dying oral tradition and cultural practices of the Ham and cognate groups of north central Nigeria. O
Read more